How Europe lost the Battle of Ceuta; the four horsemen of the summer apocalypse; why Europe faces a climate sovereign doom loop; and why the Clacton by-election is not a joke
This is an excellent analysis. What strikes me is the intelligence failure. Spain or actually Europe should by now know the various vulnerabilities highlighted in your comment. It is painful to see how helpless and naive this looks in terms of prevention, initial reaction and strategic response.
Thanks Anders. I agree that it is the intelligence failure that should be most concerning - and will no doubt become the focus in the coming days. But sadly only after a lot of damage has been done by politicians and media amplifying far right talking points…
Security forces in Morocco and EU did not recognize, weeks in advance, that +50,000 individuals, mostly young men, were enticed with false messages thru Tik-Tok and similar media, to show up at a specific border under false pretenses? This is the most serious breach of border security that must be addresed by EU ministers and Moroccan authorities.
I feel a bit stunned after reading this because you show quite simply and brilliantly how all the separate discombobulating elements coalesce into a much bigger and increasingly disturbing whole story. I can see what events are in train now. I feel like I can understand a bit better the times we are living through. Thank you for doing the journalism that I’ve not been able to read anywhere else. Incredible that, really. It’s just crazy that I’ve not been able to read this analysis anywhere else. Why aren’t more journalists gathering these disparate elements and parsing something big and scary? Maybe it’s just too big and scary. Your analysis is very reasonable, however.
Thank you so much for this. Feedback like that makes the effort that goes into writing this newsletter feel worthwhile.
As to why you can’t find similar analysis elsewhere, it’s not that other journalists cannot join the dots, it’s more that most journalists are constrained by silos, as are the people they are reporting on. I was lucky earlier in my career to be able to range widely in some very broad silos - and now I am not constrained by anyone at all…
This is one of your best posts ever. The climate sovereign risk is real and not covered, as few papers discuss the “heat wave” as a climate crisis, and your analysis of Warsh and Bessant is concerning. There’s no take like that in the Nikkei. There should be. As soon as this is up, I’ll post it on linked in to Nikkei journalists to tell some hard truth.
Europe’s real defeat at Ceuta was not simply the border breach. It was the exposure of a union with shared borders but fragmented political responsibility. Solidarity cannot put Spain beyond scrutiny, but nor can every crisis be met with national blame and theatre. Integration without common capacity remains fragile.
That’s true. But I do think the real defeat here was the rush to judgement on incomplete information, the lack of solidarity for a member state under assault, the cynical validation of far right narratives, and the indulgence of partisan politics at a moment of a crisis. There are certainly lessons to be learned about border security, but these are second order issues in my view to the deeply damaging display of disunity on display this weekend…
It’s ok to defend Spain!! This is the best summary I’ve seen. I’d also add this: Ceuta and Melilla are not really part of Schengen. Anyone leaving gets checked at the border, so the outrage is absolute nonsense, and yes, Italy is actually the immigration point and Meloni is throwing red meat and lies to protect her far right flank. Excellent work as always. Again, it’s ok to defend Spain. I’m in daily contact and you need to be careful about what you read. See also the actions of the Spanish Supreme Court, no friend to Pedro. They also played a role.
I have no problem defending Spain! My point was simply that this episode is too important- and the issues raised for Europe too existential - to be sidetracked by the usual hyper-partisan debates that surround anything that touches on Pedro Sanchez, which is precisely what I think has happened this weekend. My fear is that the scars of this will take a long time to heal, even in the context of good faith reporting, which sadly is in very short supply
Really? All the evidence points away from any fault of Pedro and Spain. It’s upsetting. The cynicism is unimaginable with all the deaths. So many young people. The Guardian just reported that locals are helping the migrants still there, but neo Nazi gangs are arriving. Also, the Spanish police and army are in a bad position, caught between protecting and having to be cruel. Where is the humanity?
I don’t think Spain or Sanchez bear any blame for this episode - and as I say in the piece, other EU governments should be congratulating him on restoring order so quickly. I agree on the cynicism. As I wrote elsewhere, the far right invasion of Ceuta now underway is likely to be far more damaging to European security and stability than the events of recent days as these thugs seek to exploit tragedy
As you say, if one looks at the expanding climate disaster, it all becomes more troubling. We are not prepared for a rational, coordinated response, there, or in Clacton. I don’t see why we can’t come together. A piece of trivia: at the beginning, P tried to make a coalition with the now defunct Ciudadanos. They refused. If viewed through a 90s to 2016 lens, his politics are pretty centrist. I’m sure people would argue against me, but he hasn’t nationalized anything.
Simon, Regarding Spain, Ceuta and Morocco, I see the hand of the Moroccan government very much driving the events of last week. Pedro Sánchez visited Algiers in mid-July in a bid to repair relations with Algeria, Spain's largest supplier of natural gas. Algeria and Morocco are arch rivals, with the main point of contention being the status of Western Sahara (formerly Spanish Sahara), an autonomous region under Moroccan sovereignty coveted by Algeria. Sánchez's rapprochement with Algeria was not welcomed by Morocco, which orchestrated last week's assault.
It is not the first time. In 2021, Spain provided medical treatment to Brahim Ghali, a pro-Algerian Western Sahara political leader hostile to Morocco. The result was the same: a flood of migrants in Ceuta.
The Spanish Supreme Court decision and the regularization of immigrants in Spain may have contributed a bit but are mostly red herrings. As you point out, the migrant hordes were not the sub-Saharans that the smugglers traffic. They were young Moroccan dressed for a day at the beach - that is because they were recruited by the Moroccan government. They mostly then strolled back to Morocco when their job was done.
Spain and Morocco have a long-standing bilateral agreement on managing their land border, which mostly involves Morocco keeping people from entering Ceuta and Melilla and the Spanish government financing that effort. Still, given the experience of 2021, Sánchez should have seen this coming. The arrangement provides Morocco with a human spigot it can use when Spain needs to be reminded of the Western Sahara issue.
Going further back, it is worth recalling that Moroccan pried Spanish Sahara away from Spain in autumn 1975, as Francisco Franco lay dying, by unleashing the "Green March," a human wave of 350,000 militants and soldiers King Hassan II sent walking into the territory. Morocco is still engaging in the same human wave diplomacy.
Thanks Peter for filling in some important gaps in my knowledge of the history of Spanish-Moroccan relations. There are clearly so many lessons that will need to be learned from this crisis as the truth emerges - none of them having much to do with the narratives being promoted online at the weekend…
I am astonished and bemused by "Situational Awareness, a fund run by... a 25 year-old former OpenAI researcher with no investment experience that peaked at $45 billion" less than two years after it was set up. A sign of the times, surely. I look forward to the film.
Thanks Jack. I didn't have time to include that young Leopold was fired by OpenAI for leaking company secrets and had previously worked for Sam Bankman-Fried, but apparently this was no bar to him raising money from some of the biggest names on Wall Street. It makes you wonder what on earth else is going on under the bonnet of global capitalism. A sell signal if ever I saw one...
Inevitably Farage jumped on it and the freakish Zia Yusuf flew to Ceuta to give first hand 'testimony' (after 98 per cent of the migrants had left for home). Do you know a way of expressing the murky details of Cottrell, Farage and Tice in language the average Clactonian could understand?
I just spent the day in Clacton to see for myself. Farage billboards everywhere, but also a surprisingly high proportion of people in the parts of the constituency I visited who had no time for him at all.
Your mention of John Stevens candidature cheered me up. Never heard his name before in the media. I would vote Binface (obviously) not enough humour in politics.
Simon, your characterisation of the climate emergency is illuminating and infinitely depressing. In my dreams, I envisage a scenario where the billions of dollars, and the collective intellectual capacity of Silicon Valley, devoted to investment in AI are alocated to arresting climate change. Innovation has a large part to play here. Maybe AI will assist in this endeavour? More likely only at the margin. The climate crisis is here and now. But Silicon Valley is not into the here and now. It's constantly seeking the Next Big Thing.
Thanks Tony. I agree it is very depressing, particularly with the Trump administration cutting funding for clean technologies. It is not all entirely bleak in the US. I wrote a couple of weeks ago about some innovative US battery technology that looks promising. But you would hope that given AI’s energy needs, Silicon Valley would be at the vanguard. Instead, it is the Chinese who are leading the way and thereby creating for themselves a future chokepoint…
Terrific post. 4 big themes. All linked and relevant to today and tomorrow. All with historical context to touch upon. This weekly newsletter format is working well. You’re obviously enjoying it!
Thanks Simon - and thanks for your support. Yes, I much enjoy writing it and I’m glad you think the format works well. Now just need to sign up a few more subscribers!
While I agree with much of your analysis, there is one mistake: the amnesty gives successful applicants a work permit, residence, and admission to the social security and health systems, initially for a year, but extendable. Past practice suggests both that nearly all the 1.2m applications will be successful and that the status will become permanent
Thanks. I don’t think what I wrote is wrong. There is no guarantee of visa extension. I was not aware of what you say about past practice. Presumably any decision to renew permits is at the government’s discretion and reflects some judgement on societal benefit?
It's wrong to say they don't get residence. They do, in Spain at least. The government will only refuse to renew if the migrant no longer fulfils the conditions. But with 1.2m involved, as you can imagine that is unlikely to involve a rigorous investigation
I thought it was an impressive show of unity, solidarity and not least quick reaction by European governments. Their commitment to securing Europe will hopefully lead to the establishment of a common European defense structure without the US, which apparently is engaged in psyops against Europe.
I agree that whatever the tensions between European governments over this episode, it should not deflect from the vital task of reducing dependencies on the US
Loved the analysis....a minor or perhaps not so minor "hinge of history" where superficially disparate players find various self-supporting motives to arrive at the same sad destination.....the real question is not whether it was an intelligence failure -- it surely wasn't, but why so many parties agreed to let this happen....on a separate but intriguing plane, what unlikely partners will dance together to deal with the refugee flows driven by climate change....
This is an excellent analysis. What strikes me is the intelligence failure. Spain or actually Europe should by now know the various vulnerabilities highlighted in your comment. It is painful to see how helpless and naive this looks in terms of prevention, initial reaction and strategic response.
Thanks Anders. I agree that it is the intelligence failure that should be most concerning - and will no doubt become the focus in the coming days. But sadly only after a lot of damage has been done by politicians and media amplifying far right talking points…
Security forces in Morocco and EU did not recognize, weeks in advance, that +50,000 individuals, mostly young men, were enticed with false messages thru Tik-Tok and similar media, to show up at a specific border under false pretenses? This is the most serious breach of border security that must be addresed by EU ministers and Moroccan authorities.
Indeed. That is what Europeans should be focused on. Not scoring political points against each other or making empty threats.
I think they back tracked pretty quickly - an advantage of my reading this on wednesday!
Yes, it seems EU interior ministers had read my post before they met on Tuesday!
The Times were crazy to lose you. This is the most sensible commentary I’ve read Simon
That’s so kind of you to say Rachel. All a long time ago now and I am much happier doing what I am doing here. Do spread the word! X
I feel a bit stunned after reading this because you show quite simply and brilliantly how all the separate discombobulating elements coalesce into a much bigger and increasingly disturbing whole story. I can see what events are in train now. I feel like I can understand a bit better the times we are living through. Thank you for doing the journalism that I’ve not been able to read anywhere else. Incredible that, really. It’s just crazy that I’ve not been able to read this analysis anywhere else. Why aren’t more journalists gathering these disparate elements and parsing something big and scary? Maybe it’s just too big and scary. Your analysis is very reasonable, however.
Thank you so much for this. Feedback like that makes the effort that goes into writing this newsletter feel worthwhile.
As to why you can’t find similar analysis elsewhere, it’s not that other journalists cannot join the dots, it’s more that most journalists are constrained by silos, as are the people they are reporting on. I was lucky earlier in my career to be able to range widely in some very broad silos - and now I am not constrained by anyone at all…
This is one of your best posts ever. The climate sovereign risk is real and not covered, as few papers discuss the “heat wave” as a climate crisis, and your analysis of Warsh and Bessant is concerning. There’s no take like that in the Nikkei. There should be. As soon as this is up, I’ll post it on linked in to Nikkei journalists to tell some hard truth.
Thanks Jake! I’ll post to LinkedIn shortly
Europe’s real defeat at Ceuta was not simply the border breach. It was the exposure of a union with shared borders but fragmented political responsibility. Solidarity cannot put Spain beyond scrutiny, but nor can every crisis be met with national blame and theatre. Integration without common capacity remains fragile.
That’s true. But I do think the real defeat here was the rush to judgement on incomplete information, the lack of solidarity for a member state under assault, the cynical validation of far right narratives, and the indulgence of partisan politics at a moment of a crisis. There are certainly lessons to be learned about border security, but these are second order issues in my view to the deeply damaging display of disunity on display this weekend…
It’s ok to defend Spain!! This is the best summary I’ve seen. I’d also add this: Ceuta and Melilla are not really part of Schengen. Anyone leaving gets checked at the border, so the outrage is absolute nonsense, and yes, Italy is actually the immigration point and Meloni is throwing red meat and lies to protect her far right flank. Excellent work as always. Again, it’s ok to defend Spain. I’m in daily contact and you need to be careful about what you read. See also the actions of the Spanish Supreme Court, no friend to Pedro. They also played a role.
I have no problem defending Spain! My point was simply that this episode is too important- and the issues raised for Europe too existential - to be sidetracked by the usual hyper-partisan debates that surround anything that touches on Pedro Sanchez, which is precisely what I think has happened this weekend. My fear is that the scars of this will take a long time to heal, even in the context of good faith reporting, which sadly is in very short supply
Really? All the evidence points away from any fault of Pedro and Spain. It’s upsetting. The cynicism is unimaginable with all the deaths. So many young people. The Guardian just reported that locals are helping the migrants still there, but neo Nazi gangs are arriving. Also, the Spanish police and army are in a bad position, caught between protecting and having to be cruel. Where is the humanity?
I don’t think Spain or Sanchez bear any blame for this episode - and as I say in the piece, other EU governments should be congratulating him on restoring order so quickly. I agree on the cynicism. As I wrote elsewhere, the far right invasion of Ceuta now underway is likely to be far more damaging to European security and stability than the events of recent days as these thugs seek to exploit tragedy
As you say, if one looks at the expanding climate disaster, it all becomes more troubling. We are not prepared for a rational, coordinated response, there, or in Clacton. I don’t see why we can’t come together. A piece of trivia: at the beginning, P tried to make a coalition with the now defunct Ciudadanos. They refused. If viewed through a 90s to 2016 lens, his politics are pretty centrist. I’m sure people would argue against me, but he hasn’t nationalized anything.
Simon, Regarding Spain, Ceuta and Morocco, I see the hand of the Moroccan government very much driving the events of last week. Pedro Sánchez visited Algiers in mid-July in a bid to repair relations with Algeria, Spain's largest supplier of natural gas. Algeria and Morocco are arch rivals, with the main point of contention being the status of Western Sahara (formerly Spanish Sahara), an autonomous region under Moroccan sovereignty coveted by Algeria. Sánchez's rapprochement with Algeria was not welcomed by Morocco, which orchestrated last week's assault.
It is not the first time. In 2021, Spain provided medical treatment to Brahim Ghali, a pro-Algerian Western Sahara political leader hostile to Morocco. The result was the same: a flood of migrants in Ceuta.
The Spanish Supreme Court decision and the regularization of immigrants in Spain may have contributed a bit but are mostly red herrings. As you point out, the migrant hordes were not the sub-Saharans that the smugglers traffic. They were young Moroccan dressed for a day at the beach - that is because they were recruited by the Moroccan government. They mostly then strolled back to Morocco when their job was done.
Spain and Morocco have a long-standing bilateral agreement on managing their land border, which mostly involves Morocco keeping people from entering Ceuta and Melilla and the Spanish government financing that effort. Still, given the experience of 2021, Sánchez should have seen this coming. The arrangement provides Morocco with a human spigot it can use when Spain needs to be reminded of the Western Sahara issue.
Going further back, it is worth recalling that Moroccan pried Spanish Sahara away from Spain in autumn 1975, as Francisco Franco lay dying, by unleashing the "Green March," a human wave of 350,000 militants and soldiers King Hassan II sent walking into the territory. Morocco is still engaging in the same human wave diplomacy.
Thanks Peter for filling in some important gaps in my knowledge of the history of Spanish-Moroccan relations. There are clearly so many lessons that will need to be learned from this crisis as the truth emerges - none of them having much to do with the narratives being promoted online at the weekend…
Brilliant post, thanks.
I am astonished and bemused by "Situational Awareness, a fund run by... a 25 year-old former OpenAI researcher with no investment experience that peaked at $45 billion" less than two years after it was set up. A sign of the times, surely. I look forward to the film.
Thanks Jack. I didn't have time to include that young Leopold was fired by OpenAI for leaking company secrets and had previously worked for Sam Bankman-Fried, but apparently this was no bar to him raising money from some of the biggest names on Wall Street. It makes you wonder what on earth else is going on under the bonnet of global capitalism. A sell signal if ever I saw one...
Inevitably Farage jumped on it and the freakish Zia Yusuf flew to Ceuta to give first hand 'testimony' (after 98 per cent of the migrants had left for home). Do you know a way of expressing the murky details of Cottrell, Farage and Tice in language the average Clactonian could understand?
I just spent the day in Clacton to see for myself. Farage billboards everywhere, but also a surprisingly high proportion of people in the parts of the constituency I visited who had no time for him at all.
Your mention of John Stevens candidature cheered me up. Never heard his name before in the media. I would vote Binface (obviously) not enough humour in politics.
Simon, your characterisation of the climate emergency is illuminating and infinitely depressing. In my dreams, I envisage a scenario where the billions of dollars, and the collective intellectual capacity of Silicon Valley, devoted to investment in AI are alocated to arresting climate change. Innovation has a large part to play here. Maybe AI will assist in this endeavour? More likely only at the margin. The climate crisis is here and now. But Silicon Valley is not into the here and now. It's constantly seeking the Next Big Thing.
Thanks Tony. I agree it is very depressing, particularly with the Trump administration cutting funding for clean technologies. It is not all entirely bleak in the US. I wrote a couple of weeks ago about some innovative US battery technology that looks promising. But you would hope that given AI’s energy needs, Silicon Valley would be at the vanguard. Instead, it is the Chinese who are leading the way and thereby creating for themselves a future chokepoint…
You are so right about China. From their perspective, Trump is the gift that keeps on giving.
Fantastic status post, thank you
That’s very kind of you to say. Thanks!
Terrific post. 4 big themes. All linked and relevant to today and tomorrow. All with historical context to touch upon. This weekly newsletter format is working well. You’re obviously enjoying it!
Thanks Simon - and thanks for your support. Yes, I much enjoy writing it and I’m glad you think the format works well. Now just need to sign up a few more subscribers!
While I agree with much of your analysis, there is one mistake: the amnesty gives successful applicants a work permit, residence, and admission to the social security and health systems, initially for a year, but extendable. Past practice suggests both that nearly all the 1.2m applications will be successful and that the status will become permanent
Thanks. I don’t think what I wrote is wrong. There is no guarantee of visa extension. I was not aware of what you say about past practice. Presumably any decision to renew permits is at the government’s discretion and reflects some judgement on societal benefit?
It's wrong to say they don't get residence. They do, in Spain at least. The government will only refuse to renew if the migrant no longer fulfils the conditions. But with 1.2m involved, as you can imagine that is unlikely to involve a rigorous investigation
I thought it was an impressive show of unity, solidarity and not least quick reaction by European governments. Their commitment to securing Europe will hopefully lead to the establishment of a common European defense structure without the US, which apparently is engaged in psyops against Europe.
I agree that whatever the tensions between European governments over this episode, it should not deflect from the vital task of reducing dependencies on the US
Loved the analysis....a minor or perhaps not so minor "hinge of history" where superficially disparate players find various self-supporting motives to arrive at the same sad destination.....the real question is not whether it was an intelligence failure -- it surely wasn't, but why so many parties agreed to let this happen....on a separate but intriguing plane, what unlikely partners will dance together to deal with the refugee flows driven by climate change....