Why Trump won't learn from his foreign policy failures; is Bessent's Yen intervention Bretton Woods 2.0; why the US is most exposed to climate risks; and why are pro-Europeans hiding behind the Bin?
Yes, this is every bit as troublesome as you imply. Most of the main media is either unaware, or too polite to splash it across their front pages: The G7 framework has broken down, also in the area of FX policies.
Thanks Erik. I’m very reassured to know we are on the same side on this. I think it is now quite clear that, as with NATO’s article 5, we can no longer be sure how the US will respond to requests for cooperation with allies in a financial crisis - or more accurately, we can be sure that it will respond with coercion but we cannot know what form the demands will take. Very troubling that this seems to have passed most of the main media by, as you say…!
Worth noting Trump’s revisionism about the nuclear issue: it no longer matters as the enriched stuff is all buried. He has allowed Iran to make the war about Hormuz. Even his over promoted pet General Caine is mouthing dissent out of the side of his mouth. Startled about any respect shown to ultra hawk Cori S.
Indeed, the overnight news is that he might simply walk away if he can reach a deal to open. Quite extraordinary. No question that starts a nuclear arms race, starting with Saudi and Turkey…
I don’t agree with you on Clacton. The sure way to defeat the far right is to make them look ridiculous. Uniting on one candidate, Count Binface, could have resulted in Farage’s defeat and that would have finished him. Policies are irrelevant, humour is much the best weapon.
I agree that if all the major parties had been able to agree to back a single Martin Bell-style independent candidate then there might have been a chance of beating Farage (though judging by the profusion of Reform placards throughout the constituency, I have my doubts). But I really don't think, based on what I heard on the doorstep in what were clearly anti-Farage parts of the constituency, that conservative-minded voters are going to come out to vote for a comedy candidate and in any case, Count Binface has no ground campaign to get out his vote (unlike Stevens who is running a professional campaign, even if turns out to be a forlorn one).
This is, indeed, an amazing fugue that puts so many things together. And things are worse than I thought. Trump’s Atlantic City process is working more powerfully than I thought. I didn’t realize just how incompetent the theatrically absurd Bessent is. But fear not: he declared wealth inequality dead. I was a little surprised because even I find myself choking at the price of groceries, and indeed, the fact my insurance has gone up 4x and will probably not pay out. Living in a fire zone in LA is lovely and probably insane, but it’s impossible to move due to interest rates and tax de-incentives. China has its problems, but it holds the energy cards and a massive stockpile of weapons. Great edition Simon. I hope many read this real journalism and that you had some downtime in Clacton.
Thanks Jake. “Atlantic City process” is a delightful euphemism for Trump’s methods which is turning out to be his sole modus operandi across the domestic and international spheres. Sadly no downtime for me in Clacton (or rather more elegant Frinton-On-Sea!) but off to Greece next week!
I’m astounded that even the FT treats his choices like policy. Have a great trip. I hope you will not be tempted to work in Greece. I remember how you once described the political culture there to me. It’s gone worse. While America is looking more Ottoman without the charm.
Farage deserves everything coming to him following his decision to resign and fight a by election. Who oppose him is not his choosing. If that is a number of comedy candidates that’s deserved. If he fails to win then there will be an interesting follow up. If he wins then he will have to face a proper return bout against a full list. John Steven’s sounds like a sensible character who deserves a run somewhere he might have a better chance or even as a candidate for the Lib Dems though of course thats his (and their} choice!
My assumption based on my brief time on the stump is that Farage will win very comfortably and that Binface will not do as well as the London media hopes. As for John Stevens, he is one of those remarkable people of whom I know quite a few who inexplicably (to me) consider themselves unwaveringly tribally Tory despite the indignities that their former party heaps on them…!
National support for Binface isn’t just because he’s a joke candidate. It would be a shame if the people of Claxton thought that they would be looked down on for picking him. Farage has embarrassed them.
Binface is both a better protest vote and a better vote to represent his constituency.
Farage recieved a £5m apparent bribe that he calls a gift and he hid it.
There’s 2 golden rules for voting in a democracy. Vote for the least worst candidate. Don’t frame it as the best candidate as that lowers turnout (perfect is the enemy of better). Apply tactical considerations if necessary. Over time the quality of candidates will improve.
Rule 2 vote for your enemy if necessary to stop any candidate who will break democracy (a fascist).
About Clacton, I fear that resentment of Stevens is to be expected, given that people came to think that Binface could win. Beating (and humiliating) Farage seems to be an emotional, over-priority for many people.
More widely, pro-Europeans seem becalmed and rudderless, judging by the run-up to the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum. And I doubt that everyone who thinks we should have stayed in the EU necessarily wants to rejoin, let alone those who think that Brexit has been badly done.
As for mainstream media, I wonder if the tiresome promotion of Binface will prove counter-productive on Thursday.
I long for a revival of thoughtful, questioning, balanced reporting.
for a writer to elaborate on these disparate difficulties so comprehensively yet succinctly is rare and welcome-thanks
Thanks Brooks - for your very kind words and your support. Much appreciated…
the words are well-deserved,simon
Yes, this is every bit as troublesome as you imply. Most of the main media is either unaware, or too polite to splash it across their front pages: The G7 framework has broken down, also in the area of FX policies.
Thanks Erik. I’m very reassured to know we are on the same side on this. I think it is now quite clear that, as with NATO’s article 5, we can no longer be sure how the US will respond to requests for cooperation with allies in a financial crisis - or more accurately, we can be sure that it will respond with coercion but we cannot know what form the demands will take. Very troubling that this seems to have passed most of the main media by, as you say…!
Worth noting Trump’s revisionism about the nuclear issue: it no longer matters as the enriched stuff is all buried. He has allowed Iran to make the war about Hormuz. Even his over promoted pet General Caine is mouthing dissent out of the side of his mouth. Startled about any respect shown to ultra hawk Cori S.
Indeed, the overnight news is that he might simply walk away if he can reach a deal to open. Quite extraordinary. No question that starts a nuclear arms race, starting with Saudi and Turkey…
I don’t agree with you on Clacton. The sure way to defeat the far right is to make them look ridiculous. Uniting on one candidate, Count Binface, could have resulted in Farage’s defeat and that would have finished him. Policies are irrelevant, humour is much the best weapon.
I agree that if all the major parties had been able to agree to back a single Martin Bell-style independent candidate then there might have been a chance of beating Farage (though judging by the profusion of Reform placards throughout the constituency, I have my doubts). But I really don't think, based on what I heard on the doorstep in what were clearly anti-Farage parts of the constituency, that conservative-minded voters are going to come out to vote for a comedy candidate and in any case, Count Binface has no ground campaign to get out his vote (unlike Stevens who is running a professional campaign, even if turns out to be a forlorn one).
An excellent, succinct analysis of the "Trump doctrine" (an oxymoron if ever there was one). One wonders if he is even aware of the Powell doctrine?
Thanks Tony. I doubt the Powell Doctrine is much discussed on Fox News so I suspect the answer to your question is No!
This is, indeed, an amazing fugue that puts so many things together. And things are worse than I thought. Trump’s Atlantic City process is working more powerfully than I thought. I didn’t realize just how incompetent the theatrically absurd Bessent is. But fear not: he declared wealth inequality dead. I was a little surprised because even I find myself choking at the price of groceries, and indeed, the fact my insurance has gone up 4x and will probably not pay out. Living in a fire zone in LA is lovely and probably insane, but it’s impossible to move due to interest rates and tax de-incentives. China has its problems, but it holds the energy cards and a massive stockpile of weapons. Great edition Simon. I hope many read this real journalism and that you had some downtime in Clacton.
Thanks Jake. “Atlantic City process” is a delightful euphemism for Trump’s methods which is turning out to be his sole modus operandi across the domestic and international spheres. Sadly no downtime for me in Clacton (or rather more elegant Frinton-On-Sea!) but off to Greece next week!
I’m astounded that even the FT treats his choices like policy. Have a great trip. I hope you will not be tempted to work in Greece. I remember how you once described the political culture there to me. It’s gone worse. While America is looking more Ottoman without the charm.
Farage deserves everything coming to him following his decision to resign and fight a by election. Who oppose him is not his choosing. If that is a number of comedy candidates that’s deserved. If he fails to win then there will be an interesting follow up. If he wins then he will have to face a proper return bout against a full list. John Steven’s sounds like a sensible character who deserves a run somewhere he might have a better chance or even as a candidate for the Lib Dems though of course thats his (and their} choice!
My assumption based on my brief time on the stump is that Farage will win very comfortably and that Binface will not do as well as the London media hopes. As for John Stevens, he is one of those remarkable people of whom I know quite a few who inexplicably (to me) consider themselves unwaveringly tribally Tory despite the indignities that their former party heaps on them…!
Just read Fraser Nelson’s posting on the bin. I can’t fault it!
Satire is sometimes the best way to prepare people for an about-face. Mr. Farage clearly doesn't like looking foolish.
National support for Binface isn’t just because he’s a joke candidate. It would be a shame if the people of Claxton thought that they would be looked down on for picking him. Farage has embarrassed them.
Binface is both a better protest vote and a better vote to represent his constituency.
Farage recieved a £5m apparent bribe that he calls a gift and he hid it.
There’s 2 golden rules for voting in a democracy. Vote for the least worst candidate. Don’t frame it as the best candidate as that lowers turnout (perfect is the enemy of better). Apply tactical considerations if necessary. Over time the quality of candidates will improve.
Rule 2 vote for your enemy if necessary to stop any candidate who will break democracy (a fascist).
A brilliant post, Simon, as ever. Thanks.
About Clacton, I fear that resentment of Stevens is to be expected, given that people came to think that Binface could win. Beating (and humiliating) Farage seems to be an emotional, over-priority for many people.
More widely, pro-Europeans seem becalmed and rudderless, judging by the run-up to the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum. And I doubt that everyone who thinks we should have stayed in the EU necessarily wants to rejoin, let alone those who think that Brexit has been badly done.
As for mainstream media, I wonder if the tiresome promotion of Binface will prove counter-productive on Thursday.
I long for a revival of thoughtful, questioning, balanced reporting.