Thoughts on a goodish week for Europe, a great year for China and an outstanding year for the Trump family. Plus marketing God - lessons from the success of the Alpha Course
Really sharp take on the EU loan structure. The observation that frozen assests work better as a bargaining chip than a revenue stream is spot-on. I remeber when the reparations loan was first floated, everyone assumed it was a done deal, but the legal uncertainty around Euroclear was always gonna be the sticking point. What's intresting is how this actually gives Brussels more leverage in any future Trump-Putin deal, assuming either side remembers the EU still has a seat at the table.
Thanks. I've just published a guest post by Hugo Dixon who gives his counterpoint on why he thinks the reparation loan provides greater leverage. I fear the real answer is that either way, Europe's leverage is only as real as its willingness to resist pressure from Trump and Putin, which may not be as much as one might hope.
I have enjoyed this Substack very much, and gained new insights into how the world economy is working.
Perhaps after Christmas, Simon might tell us why fuel prices in the UK are so high when crude oil price is so low. Just filled up this morning at £1.37 a litre
Thanks Andrew. Delighted that you have enjoyed these newsletters and really appreciate your support. And thanks for the suggestion! A fellow reader some me some excellent observations yesterday on electricity prices so perhaps I will combine them into one post! Happy Christmas
Thanks Michael. Alas, the good news on the octopuses broke too late for me to spread the cheer. But something to look forward to in 2026. Happy Christmas!
Re: 'Year of the Dragon' - 'How the Trump administration walked into this well-laid trap, which Beijing had been openly preparing for years, is a mystery'.
Sorry, it's anything but a mystery. Anyone with an elementary understanding of Chump could this coming a mile off.
Bit of a 'What If' but post-Hungarian elections why doesn't the EU effectively tell Slovakia, Czechia & Hungary (if Orban wins) they can either start behaving or be expelled & as I keep telling a Chumpy friend, "eff off to Moscow". Is that feasible & what are the implications if it is?
I think it's in the nature of any political union to not what to lose members as it inevitably creates serious frictions and weakens the rump. The EU does have a mechanism for depriving a member state of its voting rights (Article 7), but this has never been used before, not least because the vote needs to be unanimous and the dissenter always has at least one ally. But recent EU developments are significant because on both the frozen assets and the loan to Ukraine, a majority of member states circumvented Hungary and Slovakia's veto. Of course, it is possible that one of them might voluntarily quit like the UK, but I think highly unlikely as they receive too much EU money!
Excellent piece on the EU loan, thank-you. But I don't understand what the reasons were for Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia to, effectively, give up their veto privileges. I see that they're now excluded from the interest payments, but surely there was more behind their surrender?
I am not a Christian but have always had considerable interest in what wisdom and truths underlie the vast panoply of superstition and exhibitionism that has grown out of them. I have not taken a lot of interest in the Alpha course so far but it may go some way toward addressing the immense dangers and terrors arising principally from two men. That led me to the following reflection:
It`s very obvious that neither the gang around Donald Trump nor that around Vladimir Putin has the most rudimentary idea of what government is for. I think the most famous and succinct statement came from the 17th century English philosopher, Thomas Hobbes who argued that without proper government or structure life is: “continual fear. And danger of violent death; and the life of man , solitary,poor,nasty, brutish and short.”
Fortunately, to understand that it is not necessary to study 17th century English moral philosophy. The vast complexity of human interaction is perhaps better addressed in other ways .Most people (unlike the two troublesome men named above.”) have at least a basic grasp of this fact. It is encouraged by a reading of good novels or the appreciation of dramas or films. Many of the best films of the past century have explored this subject and that understanding is implicit in many novels ,whether by Leo Tostoy or J.K. Rowling. It is unfortunate that . However, it is known that neither of the two tyrants named above are known to read anything much other than, in the case of Mr. Putin, grotesquely distorted views of Russian history.
The eminent journalist, David Cay Johnston, has reported that in most American schools nowadays no novels are read and you can even get an English degree from a university without reading a novel. It is more likely that you`ll be shown a Hollywood version of Moby Dick or To Kill a Mocking Bird. As Johnston says, literature is the principal way by which we understand the complexity of human society. Students who may be brilliant at sophisticated computing may well change the world but they are unlikely to know much about that world other than algorithms.
I think it is indisputable that the actions of both these “leaders” have taken their societies further down the descent life that is “nasty, brutish and short.”
Thanks Robert. I agree with you on the dangers for society and indeed our civilisation from the decline of reading. My former Times colleague James Marriott has written rather brilliantly about this in an essay for his Substack Cultural Capital. Wealth worth a read!
I love your articles,but I am appalled by Nicky Gumbal and his ilk. I was a devout Christian from my teenage years for some 15+ years. Then I made the mistake of looking at the intellectual arguments for and against religious belief, and - eventually and reluctantly - was forced to conclude that there is no literal truth in Christian belief. I know some intelligent people somehow manage to have religious beliefs, but I don’t know how they manage it. In particular, I am shocked by the normal evangelical belief that a vengeful deity demanded a blood sacrifice before he could forgive mankind. Primitive.
Really sharp take on the EU loan structure. The observation that frozen assests work better as a bargaining chip than a revenue stream is spot-on. I remeber when the reparations loan was first floated, everyone assumed it was a done deal, but the legal uncertainty around Euroclear was always gonna be the sticking point. What's intresting is how this actually gives Brussels more leverage in any future Trump-Putin deal, assuming either side remembers the EU still has a seat at the table.
Thanks. I've just published a guest post by Hugo Dixon who gives his counterpoint on why he thinks the reparation loan provides greater leverage. I fear the real answer is that either way, Europe's leverage is only as real as its willingness to resist pressure from Trump and Putin, which may not be as much as one might hope.
Another excellent piece that cuts through the noise and presents a clear big picture. A very Merry Christmas to you, Simon. Thank you.
Thanks you Richard, much appreciated and happy Christmas to you too!
As always an excellent piece.
I have enjoyed this Substack very much, and gained new insights into how the world economy is working.
Perhaps after Christmas, Simon might tell us why fuel prices in the UK are so high when crude oil price is so low. Just filled up this morning at £1.37 a litre
Thanks Andrew. Delighted that you have enjoyed these newsletters and really appreciate your support. And thanks for the suggestion! A fellow reader some me some excellent observations yesterday on electricity prices so perhaps I will combine them into one post! Happy Christmas
Interested in that too. We export a lot of kWh from our solar panels, but the tariff is derisory
Happy Christmas Simon. A great year for the octopuses might have lifted the gloom.
Thanks Michael. Alas, the good news on the octopuses broke too late for me to spread the cheer. But something to look forward to in 2026. Happy Christmas!
Re: 'Year of the Dragon' - 'How the Trump administration walked into this well-laid trap, which Beijing had been openly preparing for years, is a mystery'.
Sorry, it's anything but a mystery. Anyone with an elementary understanding of Chump could this coming a mile off.
Indeed. The comment was meant of course ironically! But even by his standards, it was an era defining blunder
Apologies, missed the irony. And yes, absolutely.
*see this
Bit of a 'What If' but post-Hungarian elections why doesn't the EU effectively tell Slovakia, Czechia & Hungary (if Orban wins) they can either start behaving or be expelled & as I keep telling a Chumpy friend, "eff off to Moscow". Is that feasible & what are the implications if it is?
I think it's in the nature of any political union to not what to lose members as it inevitably creates serious frictions and weakens the rump. The EU does have a mechanism for depriving a member state of its voting rights (Article 7), but this has never been used before, not least because the vote needs to be unanimous and the dissenter always has at least one ally. But recent EU developments are significant because on both the frozen assets and the loan to Ukraine, a majority of member states circumvented Hungary and Slovakia's veto. Of course, it is possible that one of them might voluntarily quit like the UK, but I think highly unlikely as they receive too much EU money!
Excellent piece on the EU loan, thank-you. But I don't understand what the reasons were for Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia to, effectively, give up their veto privileges. I see that they're now excluded from the interest payments, but surely there was more behind their surrender?
I am not a Christian but have always had considerable interest in what wisdom and truths underlie the vast panoply of superstition and exhibitionism that has grown out of them. I have not taken a lot of interest in the Alpha course so far but it may go some way toward addressing the immense dangers and terrors arising principally from two men. That led me to the following reflection:
It`s very obvious that neither the gang around Donald Trump nor that around Vladimir Putin has the most rudimentary idea of what government is for. I think the most famous and succinct statement came from the 17th century English philosopher, Thomas Hobbes who argued that without proper government or structure life is: “continual fear. And danger of violent death; and the life of man , solitary,poor,nasty, brutish and short.”
Fortunately, to understand that it is not necessary to study 17th century English moral philosophy. The vast complexity of human interaction is perhaps better addressed in other ways .Most people (unlike the two troublesome men named above.”) have at least a basic grasp of this fact. It is encouraged by a reading of good novels or the appreciation of dramas or films. Many of the best films of the past century have explored this subject and that understanding is implicit in many novels ,whether by Leo Tostoy or J.K. Rowling. It is unfortunate that . However, it is known that neither of the two tyrants named above are known to read anything much other than, in the case of Mr. Putin, grotesquely distorted views of Russian history.
The eminent journalist, David Cay Johnston, has reported that in most American schools nowadays no novels are read and you can even get an English degree from a university without reading a novel. It is more likely that you`ll be shown a Hollywood version of Moby Dick or To Kill a Mocking Bird. As Johnston says, literature is the principal way by which we understand the complexity of human society. Students who may be brilliant at sophisticated computing may well change the world but they are unlikely to know much about that world other than algorithms.
I think it is indisputable that the actions of both these “leaders” have taken their societies further down the descent life that is “nasty, brutish and short.”
Thanks Robert. I agree with you on the dangers for society and indeed our civilisation from the decline of reading. My former Times colleague James Marriott has written rather brilliantly about this in an essay for his Substack Cultural Capital. Wealth worth a read!
Thankyou Simon. I sent that one out a little hastily so not edited as I normally would I'll look at James Marriott's piece.
I love your articles,but I am appalled by Nicky Gumbal and his ilk. I was a devout Christian from my teenage years for some 15+ years. Then I made the mistake of looking at the intellectual arguments for and against religious belief, and - eventually and reluctantly - was forced to conclude that there is no literal truth in Christian belief. I know some intelligent people somehow manage to have religious beliefs, but I don’t know how they manage it. In particular, I am shocked by the normal evangelical belief that a vengeful deity demanded a blood sacrifice before he could forgive mankind. Primitive.