Thoughts on Trump's Ukraine mineral heist, Merz's fighting talk, the flawed logic of "reverse Nixon", are we heading back to the 1930s, and what America would lose by exiting the IMF and World Bank
Simon, excellent article and as usual lots to absorb and ponder. The latest Trump turn on Ukraine is unconscionable and unprincipled. I think the greatest damage, which you note, is the breach of trust signal to other allies, especially in Asia. We (the West) promised Ukraine we'd protect them to persuade them to give up their nukes, and now...
I am less sure of how to think about the Nixonian angle. The marriage of Russia and China is one of convenience, not a union based on principles like Europe-US used to be.. Western sanctions made Russia more dependent on China, strengthening that relationship. A friendlier US stance, while morally wrong, should do the opposite. Russia would play both sides, as you note, but that by definition implies a less ironclad alliance with China. In a Nixonian world, or perhaps better in a Kissinger world, every key power tries to play the others against each other. Trump is not Nixon, let alone Kissinger, so we are not ideally equipped for this game; but I am not sure we should take the China-Russia alliance as something immutable. As I said, I'm just thinking aloud here
Thanks Marco! Re Reverse Nixon, it seems Putin has acted swiftly to try to nip this in the bud. He initiated a call with Xi Jinping today in which he said: "Developing relations with China is a strategic choice by Russia with a long-term perspective and not a stop-gap measure, and is not affected by a temporary event or external factors". Meanwhile Xi said: "History and reality show us that China and Russia are good neighbours who cannot be separated and true friends who share both good and bad times".
Perhaps the fact that they feel the need to say it means that the alliance is not as ironclad as they would like us to believe, though I am inclined to think that they mean it, not least because who knows where America will stand in four years time. I worry more that Trump will end up trying to join their dictators' club...
When an anti-capitalist and Marxist like Yanis Varoufakis writes that Trump's economic masterplan might work, I read it carefully. Quite surprising this analysis!
US and Great Britain established a lend-lease agreement to defeat Nazi Germany during WWII. The interest rate back on the fixed rate loan then was 2 percent, not 50 percent of the revenues. See http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6215847.stm.
Simon, excellent article and as usual lots to absorb and ponder. The latest Trump turn on Ukraine is unconscionable and unprincipled. I think the greatest damage, which you note, is the breach of trust signal to other allies, especially in Asia. We (the West) promised Ukraine we'd protect them to persuade them to give up their nukes, and now...
I am less sure of how to think about the Nixonian angle. The marriage of Russia and China is one of convenience, not a union based on principles like Europe-US used to be.. Western sanctions made Russia more dependent on China, strengthening that relationship. A friendlier US stance, while morally wrong, should do the opposite. Russia would play both sides, as you note, but that by definition implies a less ironclad alliance with China. In a Nixonian world, or perhaps better in a Kissinger world, every key power tries to play the others against each other. Trump is not Nixon, let alone Kissinger, so we are not ideally equipped for this game; but I am not sure we should take the China-Russia alliance as something immutable. As I said, I'm just thinking aloud here
Thanks Marco! Re Reverse Nixon, it seems Putin has acted swiftly to try to nip this in the bud. He initiated a call with Xi Jinping today in which he said: "Developing relations with China is a strategic choice by Russia with a long-term perspective and not a stop-gap measure, and is not affected by a temporary event or external factors". Meanwhile Xi said: "History and reality show us that China and Russia are good neighbours who cannot be separated and true friends who share both good and bad times".
Perhaps the fact that they feel the need to say it means that the alliance is not as ironclad as they would like us to believe, though I am inclined to think that they mean it, not least because who knows where America will stand in four years time. I worry more that Trump will end up trying to join their dictators' club...
When an anti-capitalist and Marxist like Yanis Varoufakis writes that Trump's economic masterplan might work, I read it carefully. Quite surprising this analysis!
https://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2025/02/21/donald-trumps-economic-masterplan-unherd/
US and Great Britain established a lend-lease agreement to defeat Nazi Germany during WWII. The interest rate back on the fixed rate loan then was 2 percent, not 50 percent of the revenues. See http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6215847.stm.