What’s important on Europe is that the conversation on growth is now properly mainstream and a host of solutions are clearly articulated by Draghi and others. Regulation, in particular, is stifling. I hope for some performance above the very low expectations here…as you say.
I think the need to deregulate has been fully internalised by the new Commission. But whether and how that translates into action, we will have to see. We have been here before, not least with Juncker's one in one out promise which went nowhere...
How refreshing to get a reminder of some reasons for optimism going into this year. We need them! We also need great leaders to inspire and guide and who can serve as a counterpoint to other dastardly figures out there (and there seem to be plenty of those..).. I would like to read about people doing great things. Let's hope Jalani may be one such figure. We need many. Cometh the hour, cometh the man, and cometh the woman..
I appreciate your optimism on Jan 05 of this new year. It's a good place to start, however we need to take the shades off and be very mindful of many changes to the rules of the game called democracy that we've played over the past 100+ years. Watch the economic performance carefully. Its global. Rather than being guided by fair market competition it's now a group of monopolies and the neoclassical economic theories have not panned out (trickled-down) to the average citizen. Poverty is significant and increasing as costs of living escalate and employment and wages lag. GDP doesn't dwell too much on the Consumer Price Index and employment rates and wages. This latest election was determined in large measure by the promise to the average citizen to 'fix' things and lowering the 'price of eggs'. The tech-bro billionaires may have different plans.
I agree that there is something fundamentally flawed in the western economic model which the recent inflation shock has highlighted, whereby US productivity gains over the last few decades have gone overwhelmingly to capital rather than labour. It is a similar story across the West and I think explains much of the rise of populism. I don't know the answer but plan to write something on this shortly.
I basically agree with your optimism except on one point, I don't think Trump is capable of grasping or acting on a coherent geopolitical strategy. Thus, many opportunities will simply be overlooked. Indeed, trump tends to do nice things for people who shmooze him well— Xi and Putin. This does not work for Europeans because he thinks America has done too damn much for them already.
However, I do agree that he can do much less damage domestically than many fear. I have written a series of posts on my substack that explore the forces that will slow Trump's fuzzy domestic program down.
I would focus on Europe and the EU's growing (green) energy independence - which is also a decoupling from the US Dollar for Euro countries as oil and gas are sold in US Dollars - which means high US inflation translates into strong dollar which makes oil more expensive to EUROpeans.
Hence, as EUROpeans buy more Euro based energy, the ECB doesn't have to deal with imported US inflation.
This is important because if Trump does tariffs and boosts US inflation and / or interest rates, the ECB will be more able to take a different path to the US.
I think leaving the 'best' (depending on one's interpretation of advances in technology) to the last is a good strategy.
Thanks. It was originally intended to be a standalone subscriber only piece over the holidays but flu intervened!
What’s important on Europe is that the conversation on growth is now properly mainstream and a host of solutions are clearly articulated by Draghi and others. Regulation, in particular, is stifling. I hope for some performance above the very low expectations here…as you say.
I think the need to deregulate has been fully internalised by the new Commission. But whether and how that translates into action, we will have to see. We have been here before, not least with Juncker's one in one out promise which went nowhere...
How refreshing to get a reminder of some reasons for optimism going into this year. We need them! We also need great leaders to inspire and guide and who can serve as a counterpoint to other dastardly figures out there (and there seem to be plenty of those..).. I would like to read about people doing great things. Let's hope Jalani may be one such figure. We need many. Cometh the hour, cometh the man, and cometh the woman..
I appreciate your optimism on Jan 05 of this new year. It's a good place to start, however we need to take the shades off and be very mindful of many changes to the rules of the game called democracy that we've played over the past 100+ years. Watch the economic performance carefully. Its global. Rather than being guided by fair market competition it's now a group of monopolies and the neoclassical economic theories have not panned out (trickled-down) to the average citizen. Poverty is significant and increasing as costs of living escalate and employment and wages lag. GDP doesn't dwell too much on the Consumer Price Index and employment rates and wages. This latest election was determined in large measure by the promise to the average citizen to 'fix' things and lowering the 'price of eggs'. The tech-bro billionaires may have different plans.
I agree that there is something fundamentally flawed in the western economic model which the recent inflation shock has highlighted, whereby US productivity gains over the last few decades have gone overwhelmingly to capital rather than labour. It is a similar story across the West and I think explains much of the rise of populism. I don't know the answer but plan to write something on this shortly.
If a quantum computer can solve a problem that can be solved no other way, how will we have any reliable way of knowing that it got it right?
Ha! Good question...
I basically agree with your optimism except on one point, I don't think Trump is capable of grasping or acting on a coherent geopolitical strategy. Thus, many opportunities will simply be overlooked. Indeed, trump tends to do nice things for people who shmooze him well— Xi and Putin. This does not work for Europeans because he thinks America has done too damn much for them already.
However, I do agree that he can do much less damage domestically than many fear. I have written a series of posts on my substack that explore the forces that will slow Trump's fuzzy domestic program down.
https://kathleenweber.substack.com/p/will-trump-2025-hitler-1933
https://kathleenweber.substack.com/p/resistance-is-silent
https://kathleenweber.substack.com/p/the-only-real-firewall-against-the
https://kathleenweber.substack.com/p/the-mouth-that-roars
I would focus on Europe and the EU's growing (green) energy independence - which is also a decoupling from the US Dollar for Euro countries as oil and gas are sold in US Dollars - which means high US inflation translates into strong dollar which makes oil more expensive to EUROpeans.
Hence, as EUROpeans buy more Euro based energy, the ECB doesn't have to deal with imported US inflation.
This is important because if Trump does tariffs and boosts US inflation and / or interest rates, the ECB will be more able to take a different path to the US.