Thoughts on Europe's darkest days since the 1940s, why common defence is so difficult, Britain’s geostrategic choice, Trump's MEGA-Europeans, and should you buy on the sound of trumpets?
Darkest week since long before the 1940’s In fact ever. I can’t think of circumstances so dire in modern history. The one tiny shaft of light is that Trump is so erratic that he may do a 180 degree turn if he sees a better outcome if he dumps Putin. Putin is fundamentally week and Europe can outgun Russia if it gets its act together. That’s a big ‘If’
The world seems to keep attributing 4D chess moves to a guy whose daily schedule revolves around watching Fox News and rage-posting on Truth Social. We've got transcripts showing he can barely string together coherent sentences about basic policy matters. Or comprehend the fundamentals in the first place. His own staff has described trying to brief him as "like explaining quantum physics to a golden retriever."
His most sophisticated political strategy appears to be "whatever the last person who complimented me suggested." Remember when he went from threatening to nuke North Korea to writing love letters to Kim Jong Un? We forgot already?
I guess what I'm trying to say is: when you see erratic policy shifts, it might be worth considering whether we're watching strategy unfold or just a very loud, very powerful person discovering things for the first time, live on camera, which he loves. He's the "you're fired" guy. We forgot that too?
The scariest part might be that his advisers know exactly which emotional buttons to push. They've figured out how to weaponise chaos, and are trying to profit from it.
It’s exactly because he spends so much time watching fox that he has his finger on the pulse of his supporters. Plan for the worst outcome certainly but have in mind that Trump hasn’t exactly put a foot wrong either in his business career (bankruptcies avoided) brushes with the law (the numerous cases he has dodged). He has turned through 180 on N Korea, threatened tariffs and claimed victory when smart countries respond, he could also find his Russia policy unwinding as Europe gets its act together and 🇺🇸 population stand with Ukraine. I’m not saying this will all happen but it might. Then what will Trump demand from Europe as their part of the deal and will they have the wherewithal to respond?
Unfortunately I don’t think that is likely. I don’t think he has any wish to dump Putin who he sees as central to his imperial view of the new world order. But a slim chance perhaps that Europe and Ukraine can force him to dump Putin by showing that his sell-out is unworkable…
Brilliant article Simon.. It’s so galling, terrifying and awful. He has been telegraphing it all along of course, but now it’s actually happening it seems surreal.. It’s almost as if Putin has programmed the US over the last week. Trump is the antithesis of everything America once stood for.. Deep breath: time to get real and get our shit together!
A really thought-provoking and rather scary read. A thorough and broad overview - what we all need, even if it's not quite what we all want! Many thanks Simon - eloquently put!;)
Of course the UK has reverted to its historical 'bridging' pretensions, evidently unaware that Giorgia Meloni has occupied that slot already with her American far right soulmates. It was not surprising either to see John Healey desperately trying to identify a silver lining in Pete Hegseth's declaration of isolationist principles. Pathetic does not describe it. One also wonders about the idea of inserting European troops along an internal ceasefire line in Ukraine. Especially as various UK defence experts say the UK army is desperately short of numbers and an effective logistical train to operate in a state whose infrastructure has been pulverised by the Russians. Who will provide air cover for these troops, without which their position would be suicidal? Surely not the US if Hegseth is speaking the truth.
Fully agree, Michael. It is hard not to see Starmer’s premature, unconsidered and uncoordinated talk of sending British troops as yet more sucking up to Trump. It has clearly only succeeded in adding to difficulties between European allies. Deeply depressing.
Which genius advised him on this? Powell? It merely exposes the dilapidated state of our armed forces, as the right wing press highlights every day. He doesn’t even know what the shape of any ceasefire will be.
About attitudes to the EU, I think that the extent of antagonism towards the EU that motivated those influential in pushing for Brexit has had less acknowledgement than it is due. For some, over-turning the EU and thereby "rescuing" member nation states was an objective. To that extent, there may still be alignment with current US policy.
I suspect that those within the EU who might, like Marine Le Pen, once have wanted their own EU exit will take a pragmatic approach and just look to ignore EU rules they don't like. I'm sure I once saw the term "leave from within".
I think that is exactly right Jack. Over the years I have consistently drawn attention to Michael Gove’s comments during the referendum campaign about Brexit being a pan-European liberation movement, something Brexiteers have long tried to play down. So long as the EU exists it will always be an existential threat to Brexiteer absolutist ideas on national sovereignty or fantasies about the Anglosphere, so there is, as you say, a strong affinity with Trump-Putinism. I suspect we will see them soon pivot back to their original Putinist views on Ukraine.
It is very important to not leave unstated how much more dangerous and unstable a world we are heading into. A lot more pain, suffering and bloodshed is in the cards. Hopefully not on the horrific scale of the previous global regime.
Geography writes politics. The ability of the EU manufacturing industries to work together to provide premium product has been a demonstrable fact for decades: the incentive on German-based manufacturers to re-gear to supply the requirements of the Russo-Ukrainian war (specified by the Ukrainians) is clear, same for manufacturers in France, Sweden, Italy, Spain and the UK. They all work together right now. In time Ukraine's requirements can be met and the massive land and-naval deterrents built up. If neo-Trumpian 'autocrats' in Hungary and Slovakia (both attempting to re-write 1919-21?) object then they will be swept aside now as on several previous occasions. Its called 'business'. With Russia already anxious to follow up on its success with Brexit, engaged in hybrid warfare across Europe surely cold hard pragmatism should win out? Surely it's 'roll up our sleeves' (Attlee-Bevin) time again.
I fear it may be too late for Europe to gear up to support Ukraine on its own. The question is whether NATO/the EU can defend its current eastern borders. The presence of Trump-Putin autocrats makes this very difficult as they have effectively hamstrung the institutional machinery. Whether these leaders will be swept aside depends on how much is left of their democracies…
Following up my earlier comment made at the end of the first part. It seems most of my shaft of light has been lost due to the complex nature of the situation. There may be a way to unite the EU with the rest of Europe to stand up to Putin but the dictator can call the shots without having to ask first. The USA may come unstuck particularly if things heat up in the east and will Taiwan be sacrificed? Will the global market for chips becomes an issue. China will probably come out of this ahead earlier than they thought possible. Daron Acemoglu (Feb 8th in the FT) makes fascinating reading for those of us who like a bit of futuristic writing.
After this week, Xi Jinping can tell his Standing Committee to take a nap for the next four years. They can then awake with the world in their laps. The most interesting speech in Munich was actually delivered by Wang Yi, who seemed like Castlereagh or Talleyrand compared with the thuggish blowhard Americans.
Agree on Wang Yi, though hearing him extolling the rules-based system and insisting on respect for the UN while China supports Russia’s war and subverts the global trading system with its subsidies was hard to take…
If China begins to see a takeover of Taiwan as a cakewalk because of actions or signals from the current administration then that will happen sooner rather than later since it is a priority for Xi.
Nice analysis, thank you. How about: Trump is 78 and seizing his moment to be writ large in history while gaining wealth and power for his family and cabal. He needs to move fast. He’s delivering on what he sees as MAGA by gaining access to critical mineral and energy resources by hook or crook. China has long had a policy of creeping influence in Africa and Asia, controlling minerals, which Trump abhors. A Putin-Trump alliance of convenience would deliver his goal, recompense $bns spent on Ukraine, and many of Russia’s including maybe access to tech. Arguably Taiwan is no longer so important given Biden’s push to reshore semiconductor manufacturing. Trump’s top team see that Europe meanwhile has fractured in a web of time and money eating DEI / ESG “nonsense”. USA controls much of the tech used by the West. Beware
> At the start of the year, I wrote a column for the FT noting that bearish sentiments towards European stocks and bonds had reached extreme levels and looked at what could go right in 2025 that could lead to European assets outperforming.
The EU finds itself in this bizarrely advantageous position - while Trump barrels around like a drunk elephant in a china shop, trying to gift-wrap Ukraine for him (what a timeline we live in), Europe has to reshape its economic relationships. E.g. look at the Mercosur deal. With the US going full isolationist-bully mode, the EU could build deeper trade links with China and expand meaningfully into emerging markets. European manufacturers might come out winners from this whole mess. China would like that as well, win-win.
And speaking of changes - I'm bullish that German fiscal policy might finally loosen up, plus we could see those internal EU barriers start dissolving. The germans are pragmatic people, they will see the light eventually. VW shutting down factories was the canary in the coal mine. The green-equivalent I guess. They are also losing the AI battle before it even started, I cannot see them stay asleep on the wheel.
Between Trump's "America First" theatrics and his disturbing Putin collaboration, EU leaders might finally grasp how much untapped potential they're sitting on. Nothing focuses the mind quite like watching your supposed ally try to dismantle decades of partnership while cozying up to autocrats. A slap in the face is what they need actually. It might shift political will as well.
What's your take on how quickly these shifts might play out?
A massive expansion of the European defense industry and a boycott of American weapons should be a huge boost in growth to the lackluster EU economy. European weapons (including Britain) are at least as effective as American ones, cost much less and are much more practical. An expanded EU armaments industry could seriously challenge American arms sales around the world. Be careful what you wish for, Americans.
I’m afraid that a massive expansion of the European defence industries will take years to deliver and will depend upon overcoming all the various obstacles and finding answers to the questions I raise in the post. The EU has been trying and failing to agree an approach for the last three years amid existential pressure. In the short-term it is almost impossible to avoid relying on US weapons, even if that leaves Europe even more in hock to America…
Darkest week since long before the 1940’s In fact ever. I can’t think of circumstances so dire in modern history. The one tiny shaft of light is that Trump is so erratic that he may do a 180 degree turn if he sees a better outcome if he dumps Putin. Putin is fundamentally week and Europe can outgun Russia if it gets its act together. That’s a big ‘If’
I do agree, but for a different reason.
The world seems to keep attributing 4D chess moves to a guy whose daily schedule revolves around watching Fox News and rage-posting on Truth Social. We've got transcripts showing he can barely string together coherent sentences about basic policy matters. Or comprehend the fundamentals in the first place. His own staff has described trying to brief him as "like explaining quantum physics to a golden retriever."
His most sophisticated political strategy appears to be "whatever the last person who complimented me suggested." Remember when he went from threatening to nuke North Korea to writing love letters to Kim Jong Un? We forgot already?
I guess what I'm trying to say is: when you see erratic policy shifts, it might be worth considering whether we're watching strategy unfold or just a very loud, very powerful person discovering things for the first time, live on camera, which he loves. He's the "you're fired" guy. We forgot that too?
The scariest part might be that his advisers know exactly which emotional buttons to push. They've figured out how to weaponise chaos, and are trying to profit from it.
It’s exactly because he spends so much time watching fox that he has his finger on the pulse of his supporters. Plan for the worst outcome certainly but have in mind that Trump hasn’t exactly put a foot wrong either in his business career (bankruptcies avoided) brushes with the law (the numerous cases he has dodged). He has turned through 180 on N Korea, threatened tariffs and claimed victory when smart countries respond, he could also find his Russia policy unwinding as Europe gets its act together and 🇺🇸 population stand with Ukraine. I’m not saying this will all happen but it might. Then what will Trump demand from Europe as their part of the deal and will they have the wherewithal to respond?
Unfortunately I don’t think that is likely. I don’t think he has any wish to dump Putin who he sees as central to his imperial view of the new world order. But a slim chance perhaps that Europe and Ukraine can force him to dump Putin by showing that his sell-out is unworkable…
How is it ' unworkable' exactly!? Don't think that's likely, as you say;)
Brilliant article Simon.. It’s so galling, terrifying and awful. He has been telegraphing it all along of course, but now it’s actually happening it seems surreal.. It’s almost as if Putin has programmed the US over the last week. Trump is the antithesis of everything America once stood for.. Deep breath: time to get real and get our shit together!
Antithesis? Really!!??
So much intellectual protein here to digest. Thanks, Simon
Thanks Craig!
A really thought-provoking and rather scary read. A thorough and broad overview - what we all need, even if it's not quite what we all want! Many thanks Simon - eloquently put!;)
Thank you! I wish it were not so…
A satrapy! I see us a rather untrained and confused ballboys/girls!
Of course the UK has reverted to its historical 'bridging' pretensions, evidently unaware that Giorgia Meloni has occupied that slot already with her American far right soulmates. It was not surprising either to see John Healey desperately trying to identify a silver lining in Pete Hegseth's declaration of isolationist principles. Pathetic does not describe it. One also wonders about the idea of inserting European troops along an internal ceasefire line in Ukraine. Especially as various UK defence experts say the UK army is desperately short of numbers and an effective logistical train to operate in a state whose infrastructure has been pulverised by the Russians. Who will provide air cover for these troops, without which their position would be suicidal? Surely not the US if Hegseth is speaking the truth.
Fully agree, Michael. It is hard not to see Starmer’s premature, unconsidered and uncoordinated talk of sending British troops as yet more sucking up to Trump. It has clearly only succeeded in adding to difficulties between European allies. Deeply depressing.
Which genius advised him on this? Powell? It merely exposes the dilapidated state of our armed forces, as the right wing press highlights every day. He doesn’t even know what the shape of any ceasefire will be.
I hear the problem is Mandelson…
About attitudes to the EU, I think that the extent of antagonism towards the EU that motivated those influential in pushing for Brexit has had less acknowledgement than it is due. For some, over-turning the EU and thereby "rescuing" member nation states was an objective. To that extent, there may still be alignment with current US policy.
I suspect that those within the EU who might, like Marine Le Pen, once have wanted their own EU exit will take a pragmatic approach and just look to ignore EU rules they don't like. I'm sure I once saw the term "leave from within".
I think that is exactly right Jack. Over the years I have consistently drawn attention to Michael Gove’s comments during the referendum campaign about Brexit being a pan-European liberation movement, something Brexiteers have long tried to play down. So long as the EU exists it will always be an existential threat to Brexiteer absolutist ideas on national sovereignty or fantasies about the Anglosphere, so there is, as you say, a strong affinity with Trump-Putinism. I suspect we will see them soon pivot back to their original Putinist views on Ukraine.
It is very important to not leave unstated how much more dangerous and unstable a world we are heading into. A lot more pain, suffering and bloodshed is in the cards. Hopefully not on the horrific scale of the previous global regime.
All cyber..
Geography writes politics. The ability of the EU manufacturing industries to work together to provide premium product has been a demonstrable fact for decades: the incentive on German-based manufacturers to re-gear to supply the requirements of the Russo-Ukrainian war (specified by the Ukrainians) is clear, same for manufacturers in France, Sweden, Italy, Spain and the UK. They all work together right now. In time Ukraine's requirements can be met and the massive land and-naval deterrents built up. If neo-Trumpian 'autocrats' in Hungary and Slovakia (both attempting to re-write 1919-21?) object then they will be swept aside now as on several previous occasions. Its called 'business'. With Russia already anxious to follow up on its success with Brexit, engaged in hybrid warfare across Europe surely cold hard pragmatism should win out? Surely it's 'roll up our sleeves' (Attlee-Bevin) time again.
'In time'? Sometimes, it's simply..too late! Besides, our economy and forces are depleted
I fear it may be too late for Europe to gear up to support Ukraine on its own. The question is whether NATO/the EU can defend its current eastern borders. The presence of Trump-Putin autocrats makes this very difficult as they have effectively hamstrung the institutional machinery. Whether these leaders will be swept aside depends on how much is left of their democracies…
Following up my earlier comment made at the end of the first part. It seems most of my shaft of light has been lost due to the complex nature of the situation. There may be a way to unite the EU with the rest of Europe to stand up to Putin but the dictator can call the shots without having to ask first. The USA may come unstuck particularly if things heat up in the east and will Taiwan be sacrificed? Will the global market for chips becomes an issue. China will probably come out of this ahead earlier than they thought possible. Daron Acemoglu (Feb 8th in the FT) makes fascinating reading for those of us who like a bit of futuristic writing.
After this week, Xi Jinping can tell his Standing Committee to take a nap for the next four years. They can then awake with the world in their laps. The most interesting speech in Munich was actually delivered by Wang Yi, who seemed like Castlereagh or Talleyrand compared with the thuggish blowhard Americans.
Agree on Wang Yi, though hearing him extolling the rules-based system and insisting on respect for the UN while China supports Russia’s war and subverts the global trading system with its subsidies was hard to take…
If China begins to see a takeover of Taiwan as a cakewalk because of actions or signals from the current administration then that will happen sooner rather than later since it is a priority for Xi.
Nice analysis, thank you. How about: Trump is 78 and seizing his moment to be writ large in history while gaining wealth and power for his family and cabal. He needs to move fast. He’s delivering on what he sees as MAGA by gaining access to critical mineral and energy resources by hook or crook. China has long had a policy of creeping influence in Africa and Asia, controlling minerals, which Trump abhors. A Putin-Trump alliance of convenience would deliver his goal, recompense $bns spent on Ukraine, and many of Russia’s including maybe access to tech. Arguably Taiwan is no longer so important given Biden’s push to reshore semiconductor manufacturing. Trump’s top team see that Europe meanwhile has fractured in a web of time and money eating DEI / ESG “nonsense”. USA controls much of the tech used by the West. Beware
Excellent piece!
> At the start of the year, I wrote a column for the FT noting that bearish sentiments towards European stocks and bonds had reached extreme levels and looked at what could go right in 2025 that could lead to European assets outperforming.
The EU finds itself in this bizarrely advantageous position - while Trump barrels around like a drunk elephant in a china shop, trying to gift-wrap Ukraine for him (what a timeline we live in), Europe has to reshape its economic relationships. E.g. look at the Mercosur deal. With the US going full isolationist-bully mode, the EU could build deeper trade links with China and expand meaningfully into emerging markets. European manufacturers might come out winners from this whole mess. China would like that as well, win-win.
And speaking of changes - I'm bullish that German fiscal policy might finally loosen up, plus we could see those internal EU barriers start dissolving. The germans are pragmatic people, they will see the light eventually. VW shutting down factories was the canary in the coal mine. The green-equivalent I guess. They are also losing the AI battle before it even started, I cannot see them stay asleep on the wheel.
Between Trump's "America First" theatrics and his disturbing Putin collaboration, EU leaders might finally grasp how much untapped potential they're sitting on. Nothing focuses the mind quite like watching your supposed ally try to dismantle decades of partnership while cozying up to autocrats. A slap in the face is what they need actually. It might shift political will as well.
What's your take on how quickly these shifts might play out?
But, we have already started moving away from the USA. Never again will the USA be thought of as a friend, never again will in be trusted.
A massive expansion of the European defense industry and a boycott of American weapons should be a huge boost in growth to the lackluster EU economy. European weapons (including Britain) are at least as effective as American ones, cost much less and are much more practical. An expanded EU armaments industry could seriously challenge American arms sales around the world. Be careful what you wish for, Americans.
I’m afraid that a massive expansion of the European defence industries will take years to deliver and will depend upon overcoming all the various obstacles and finding answers to the questions I raise in the post. The EU has been trying and failing to agree an approach for the last three years amid existential pressure. In the short-term it is almost impossible to avoid relying on US weapons, even if that leaves Europe even more in hock to America…
Too dependent on the US for that ever to happen - look what happened to Cuba!