What caught my eye this week including Chinese bonds, Beijing's flawed model, Biden's bad bets, German carmakers, Ukraine's golden opportunity, and why Kamalonomics beats Trumponomics
For the record, not a Chinese insult! When I lived in China I must have annoyed several friends by asking if they knew of it. Nowadays Google tells me at the touch of a screen that it was invented by a Chicago newspaper about a century ago.
I’m a bit more pessimistic about the US election. Trump seems to have an irreducible core vote of about 44-45%- what are they smoking?- so Harris needs to pick up a lot of floating voters in the right States
Or - and this may be the more promising approach - Harris may persuade registered voters who don’t usually vote to vote Democrat. This worked for Obama in 2008.
Your comment actually sounds a lot like an external observer, not a resident of the US. May I respectfully ask: is this true? I ask because the dynamics of populist politics here is unlike anything I've seen in my 75+ years in the US.
I don't like Trump, either, but it is well to note that the electorate *know* for a near certainty what a Trump administration is, having seen him in action just a bit over 4 years ago. There's no mystery there. And it is what Trump *is not*, or at least how he's perceived, that is the core of his appeal. He comes off as, unlike all Democratic administrations since Obama, not encouraging recognized identity groups and pitting them cynically against each other, but there are Donald's friends and his enemies, and all members of all groups are pretty much welcome in his group of friends, so far as he's concerned. All one must do is profess to like the Donald.
Harris is, to a degree, still an unknown. By default she's taken as an extension of the Biden administration, with its DEI-favoring rhetoric and further de-unifying identity politics, which I think is wearing thin with the majority.
But otherwise, Biden's economic and international outcomes are certainly good enough to make the economy a non-issue to the voters. It is social policy that is its vulnerability.
Thanks for this. That’s an interesting way of framing the choice re identity. I agree re Biden’s economic record, but this doesn’t seem to have insulated her from attacks over inflation - hence yesterday’s nonsense about price gouging…
Looking at the election from the UK, I would say that Harris has a golden opportunity to improve Biden’s economic policy- in the direction of free trade, anti monopoly , and a gradual tightening of fiscal policy. She should also advocate for Biden’s ideas on Supreme Court reform too.
Relieved…” say that Trump looks like a stone cold loser” . And feeling so up-to-breast now, with important macro developments have also subscribed- thank you Simon!
Except this is what major economies have tried for decades, before and after the PRC’s accession to the WTO, and it didn’t really change the underlying model or behavior Liu articulates, so I have no idea why it would work now, though I do know why PRC interlocutors would want to send this message to their track 1.5/track 2 foreign counterparts. “The lesson for Western policymakers is that attempts to isolate China are likely to backfire, leading to continued over-production and increasing the risk that China slides into that Japanese-style deflationary trap, with all that would imply for the global economy. To convince Beijing to change its economic model, says Liu, the West would do better to try to keep China within the global trading system, thereby creating incentives to seek more balanced growth. That is surely right. “
Thank you. Much appreciated…
This is the best thing that I have read for quite a while.
Thank you! That is very kind of you to say.
“May you live in interesting times” springs to mind. Excellent writing, and thought provoking.
For the record, not a Chinese insult! When I lived in China I must have annoyed several friends by asking if they knew of it. Nowadays Google tells me at the touch of a screen that it was invented by a Chicago newspaper about a century ago.
Good stuff.
I’m a bit more pessimistic about the US election. Trump seems to have an irreducible core vote of about 44-45%- what are they smoking?- so Harris needs to pick up a lot of floating voters in the right States
Or - and this may be the more promising approach - Harris may persuade registered voters who don’t usually vote to vote Democrat. This worked for Obama in 2008.
Yes, and this is what she has done remarkably well, so far.
The nation is polarized: no one will switch sides. Only those who fail to vote will decide the issue.
Your comment actually sounds a lot like an external observer, not a resident of the US. May I respectfully ask: is this true? I ask because the dynamics of populist politics here is unlike anything I've seen in my 75+ years in the US.
I don't like Trump, either, but it is well to note that the electorate *know* for a near certainty what a Trump administration is, having seen him in action just a bit over 4 years ago. There's no mystery there. And it is what Trump *is not*, or at least how he's perceived, that is the core of his appeal. He comes off as, unlike all Democratic administrations since Obama, not encouraging recognized identity groups and pitting them cynically against each other, but there are Donald's friends and his enemies, and all members of all groups are pretty much welcome in his group of friends, so far as he's concerned. All one must do is profess to like the Donald.
Harris is, to a degree, still an unknown. By default she's taken as an extension of the Biden administration, with its DEI-favoring rhetoric and further de-unifying identity politics, which I think is wearing thin with the majority.
But otherwise, Biden's economic and international outcomes are certainly good enough to make the economy a non-issue to the voters. It is social policy that is its vulnerability.
Thanks for this. That’s an interesting way of framing the choice re identity. I agree re Biden’s economic record, but this doesn’t seem to have insulated her from attacks over inflation - hence yesterday’s nonsense about price gouging…
Looking at the election from the UK, I would say that Harris has a golden opportunity to improve Biden’s economic policy- in the direction of free trade, anti monopoly , and a gradual tightening of fiscal policy. She should also advocate for Biden’s ideas on Supreme Court reform too.
Relieved…” say that Trump looks like a stone cold loser” . And feeling so up-to-breast now, with important macro developments have also subscribed- thank you Simon!
Except this is what major economies have tried for decades, before and after the PRC’s accession to the WTO, and it didn’t really change the underlying model or behavior Liu articulates, so I have no idea why it would work now, though I do know why PRC interlocutors would want to send this message to their track 1.5/track 2 foreign counterparts. “The lesson for Western policymakers is that attempts to isolate China are likely to backfire, leading to continued over-production and increasing the risk that China slides into that Japanese-style deflationary trap, with all that would imply for the global economy. To convince Beijing to change its economic model, says Liu, the West would do better to try to keep China within the global trading system, thereby creating incentives to seek more balanced growth. That is surely right. “